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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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“At a break or at half time you see 10 to 20 [gambling] adverts,” he says. “It’s come to a point that oftentimes I even hear my kids singing [gambling adverts]. They’ll just keep asking, ‘But Daddy, what is this? What does this mean?’
“Our position is unequivocal. Betting is an adult activity. Operators must maintain effective age verification, marketing must not target or appeal to children and regulators; parents, schools and communities must reinforce the same message.”
As part of Africa Safer Gambling Week, the AiA has also focused on the illegal market, with Kesitilwe highlighting that offshore operators are harmful for player protection.
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Just last week, Sunderland announced the crypto casino and sports betting platform Shuffle as its new official sleeve partner, in what was described as a “multi-year partnership”.
Shuffle does not hold a licence to operate in the UK.
Meanwhile, Stake continues to feature on the sleeve of Everton’s kits, despite ceasing operations in the UK in early 2025 amid a Gambling Commission investigation into its advertising.
