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One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.

At the time KSA announced: “Providers that made mistakes in the past five years must explain during the application process how they have learned from previous mistakes and how they intend to prevent recurrence. If we find this explanation insufficient, the permit may be denied or additional conditions and restrictions may be imposed.” 

This requirement raised concerns among operators worried that the barriers to entry could have become more restrictive, But at a meeting on the policies last year the regulator assured licensees it was not enforcing a specific strict rule on this.

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The three markets have reached the same point by different routes. Morocco has an incumbent defending its exclusivity through the courts, so far without success.

Tunisia has competing bills to prohibit or regulate online betting, neither of which has advanced. Egypt has relied on enforcement measures.

In all three, private online betting has no licensing route. Governments are tackling offshore demand through blocking, prohibition and criminal enforcement.

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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”