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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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“I always found it funny when Colombia was starting, operators were saying ‘players here do not like slots’, as if they have a different DNA. Five years later, they would say, ‘well, they do like slots, but simple slots’. And five years later, they were playing all the usual [slots]. It’s not that they didn’t like slots.
“If someone takes the time to understand what they’re used to playing, what they like, what their history is and take that into consideration, then you can bridge that gap. If operators take that time to understand where players are at, it does make a difference.”
Local operators, meanwhile, have tried to close the gap by strengthening their technology, including working with world-class suppliers.
About Captain Xenos Earth Adventure
Kambi had set itself the ambitious target of delivering the entire tournament through AI. By the time Spain lifted the trophy, it had provided compelling evidence that automated trading could withstand the scale and intensity of sport’s biggest betting event while improving the experience offered to operators and their customers.
“The Fifa World Cup draws global attention in a way that no other sporting event can, and it was the best stress test of the technology we could have asked for,” says Oliver Lamb, SVP of trading at Kambi.
“We also delivered a nigh-on limitless range of bet combinations, delivered in a more rapid and more seamless manner than we have been able to before.”