Wicked Witch

What is Wicked Witch?

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

What is Wicked Witch?

It is said that all great poker players have an exit strategy, and that theory should hold for all those who bring the game to fans and players, too. Calvin Ayre has been at the personal and professional forefront of poker coverage for many years.  

For so long, CalvinAyre.com has been a beacon in the poker reporting landscape but as the outgoing incumbent of this position of privilege, I haven’t been at the centre of this role for so long as to claim anywhere near all the credit.  

A huge thanks for his outstanding reporting on this site should go to Lee Davy, who for many years, brought poker to life on Calvin Ayre. I personally owe a huge debt of gratitude to Lee for the efforts he made in not only making me feel so well prepared to take up the mantle when he moved on to pastures new, but in establishing the Calvin Ayre brand so well for so many years within the poker world.

What is Wicked Witch?

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

A hearing before the Supreme Court would be the culmination of what has been the biggest sports betting-related development since PASPA. Perhaps no other issue has united gaming stakeholders from various companies, tribes, states and regulators.

Beginning with the US presidential elections in November 2024, when prediction markets catapulted into mainstream culture, their rise has been undeniable. Kalshi and Polymarket have seen their valuations balloon to $40 billion and $21 billion, respectively, and the majority of the top US bookmakers have scrambled to expand into the prediction space in various forms, either by building their own exchanges, acquiring existing ones or engaging in market-making.