Mining Rush

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Further bets flagged by operators involved other politically sensitive individuals, including Metropolitan Police officers and political advisers. The Commission charged 15 people total in April 2025. Four have now pleaded guilty.

The offences relate to special betting markets that let customers wager on the exact date of the general election.

The then-prime minister, Rishi Sunak, announced 4 July 2024 as the election date on 22 May 2024. However, internal planning for that date had already begun at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters before the announcement.

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At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives. 

However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026. 

The partnership with Yahoo Finance wraps up as prediction markets push for broader distribution across financial media, sports, and entertainment platforms. For Polymarket, the loss of the Yahoo Finance hub is one distribution channel, but other partnerships remain intact.

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Operators and companies linked to them are also prohibited from acquiring, licensing, or exploiting rights to sporting events held in the country. In the area of ​​administrative penalties, the rapporteur’s text incorporates the new infractions into the existing sanctions system in Law 14.790 of 2023, which provides for fines of up to BRL2 billion ($392.8 million). 

One of the main changes made by Vieira is the creation of the crime of promoting unauthorised betting operators. The penalty is one to five years imprisonment. This may be increased by one-sixth to two-thirds when the promotion is done by a digital influencer, athlete, or well-known person, due to their greater ability to reach the public. 

The rapporteur also added a rule designed to prevent the immediate movement of professionals between companies in the sector and bodies responsible for authorising, classifying, regulating and overseeing betting. Anyone who has maintained a significant link with an operator or representative entity of the market will be barred, for 24 months, from assuming certain regulatory functions. A quarantine period of the same duration will also apply in the reverse movement, for the transition from the regulatory body to the private sector.